Take small risks & pay attention to coincidence: Yoshiharu Habu at TEDxTokyo –

Take small risks & pay attention to coincidence: Yoshiharu Habu at TEDxTokyo –


Translator: Moe Shoji
Reviewer: Denise RQ Good morning. Thank you so much
for inviting me to TEDxTokyo today. I am Yoshiharu Habu,
a professional shogi player. I usually don’t speak while thinking so I’m not very good at
speaking in public like this, but I’ll do my best to make the most of this opportunity. Today, I’d like to talk about unique thinking processes of shogi players. The most basic part of the process is what we call “predictions.” “Predictions” mean to predict
how the game develops or to simulate the next moves. First of all, the most basic of all is what is called,
“prediction of next three moves.” Suppose you can see three pieces, you move one, then the opponent reacts to the move, and you again counteract to it. You have to predict these three moves. This is not only applicable in shogi, but also applicable to your daily lives. I presume you probably exercise such imagination quite often. Normally, you’re supposed to come up with two or more options to take in order to make a decision. For example, all of you have come
to TEDxTokyo today. The first option starts
with “to attend TEDxTokyo.” Then “to be inspired
by many different stories.” which leads you “to make use
of those for your own ideas and your daily lives.” This is the first option. There should be another option,
“not to attend TEDxTokyo.” You decide not to attend the event,
thus no change in your life which may result in
being frustrated. Comparing these two options,
you might have thought “I’m going since attending TEDxTokyo
sounds a lot more fun.” Even unwittingly,
without making notes or anything, you must have made such a decision in order to be here today. When it comes to “the next three moves,” you may think it should be quite easy, although I think there are blind spots in the most unexpected place,
which is the second step. I mean, of course
you can make your own decision regarding your own action, however, there will be other factors
such as the opponent and the situation which you are supposed to predict. For example, in a business negotiation, let’s say you want to lower the price
of the goods to sell them. “The next three moves”
in this situation will be one — lower the price, two — the client is pleased, three — the deal is made. So these are the three steps. As for the second one,
“The client is pleased,” it could possibly be the case you’re imposing your values
to make that judgment. The client may rather like to have quality control or durability
than the lower price, or the client might value
continued relationships more. Therefore, you need to step in the
client’s shoes to make the judgment in order to predict
the next moves correctly. If you make a mistake at the second step, it becomes what is called
“a self-centred prediction,” and it becomes quite pointless
however many moves you predict further. Making a prediction can be compared to branches of a tree
that are diverting from the trunk. Of course, the numbers
of possible options are exponentially so huge, one cannot decide by purely
considering the options. On which occasion, what I use
is “a bird’s-eye analysis,” or “to take a panoramic view.” As if you were a bird in the air,
looking down at the ground, you can make a guess that
it could be somewhere around here, or it should be just about here, to get a ballpark idea. You could also reflect upon
your experience and empirically decide
what is most likely. You might think, “Since this happened as such so far,
I should go that way now,” or you might know
from the current situation you should follow this direction
from now on, adhering to this principle,
and tactics, and so on. Once you know, you won’t waste your move
not having to think about it further. For example, in order to come
to this event space, once you spread the map
and know it is near Shibuya, then you do not have to take a detour, or stopping at somewhere. Similarly, you can grasp the general idea, by taking a panoramic view
from a bird’s-eye. This panoramic view from a bird’s-eye is very much a sensorial experience
that is very useful, yet, you cannot completely rely on that
for the very same reason. Let me remind you of the previous example. So you saw the map
and managed to come near Shibuya. But in order to reach this very room, you end up walking around and taking
a lift, making different actions. It means it is a solid logic
supporting your journey that led you to this very room,
your destination. And of course,
a sensorial experience is so useful since one can skip several steps
of thinking processes. Thanks to that, and likewise,
the final logic to support your hypothesis of the next three moves
should be as important as that. As well, I think such a sensorial tool can prove to be very useful for avoiding other crisis
and dwindling of business. You may find yourself unfamiliar with
the expression, “dwindling of business,” which essentially means a situation
where you cannot hope for better or win whatever length of time
and effort you put into it. So if you can find out
by using a bird’s-eye panoramic view that you will get trapped
in dwindling of business if you choose this option
on this occasion, then you should be able to choose
other options over this option even if the risk may be slightly higher. Therefore, you can link up
this sensorial experience and the logical thinking
like pairs of wheels of a car in order to react
against each different situation. This is very important for me; to be able to take a decision
without hesitation. Nowadays, there are so much information that you cannot necessarily
choose what you want. Thus, despite the wealth
of the information, you sometimes have to choose one
over everything else. When you’re supposed to choose one,
you’re likely to regret your decision. In order to avoid regretting
the decision you made – this seems to be a general tendency – you tend to be optimistic about what you did not choose while you tend to be pessimistic about
what has not happened yet, what awaits you in the future. For managing a risk
or even for avoiding a risk, this could be important
to some extent, however, you are supposed to remain
calm and objective rather than letting
your emotion sweep you away. What you did not choose in the past, normally turns out to be an option
“better not to choose,” and as for the future, not all what you
fear would happen despite your fear. Here, the strategy I explained, logically predicting the next three moves
and take a bird’s-eye panoramic view, become quite useful
in making a variety of decision-making you face in your life. I sincerely hope
you have a great day today and wish you luck for the future. Thank you very much. (Applause)

22 thoughts on “Take small risks & pay attention to coincidence: Yoshiharu Habu at TEDxTokyo –

  1. 当たり前のようで、かなり難しいこれを平然とやってのける(少なくとも俺にはそう見える)羽生さんがすごい。しかし、分かり易かったなー

  2. 直感と一言で言えば簡単だけども、その直感って一般人からすれば、一体自分のどこを信じれば良いのかっ!?って話になると思います。
    だけど、羽生さんの様に勝負事に神経を集中させて、幾度となく逆転もしてきている将棋も観ているとなんとなくだが、彼が言わんとしていることを感じることはできます。
    あくまでも人間本来が持つマイナス思考に自分の心まで支配されて、正しい行動ができない様にはならないように「気」をつけたい !
    日常で活かせるためになるお話だと思います。

  3. 選択可能な全ての手を虱潰しに検証して最善手を探すということも出来なくはないが、それではあまりにも時間がかかってしまう。
    だから人間は「明らかにありえない手は予め除外」して、有力候補を3、4つくらいに絞った上で「三手の読み」を始めるわけですね。
    その二つを同時に行えるのが人間の強み。日ごろから心がけて、読みを鍛えて行きたいものです。

  4. Ah.. can someone translate this to english? I understand "taking small risks"part, but what is he saying about "paying attention to the coincidence?" I'm a fan of Habu and I'd love to hear some of his insights..

  5. 「たかが天才棋士」が将棋の枠から飛び出して、いろんなもの、事に例えて「三手の読み」を話しても、一般人からの理解は得られないと感じた。

  6. 三手の読みではありませんが、少しバタフライエフェクトに似ているなと感じました。

  7. 将棋知らない僕ですら羽生さんは頭3つぐらい
    出るくらい強いのは知ってるけど
    まったく奢りが感じられないよね大好き

  8. Amazing!!! Habu is good not only with shogi, but with words too……I really appreciate the lesson…. thank you so much for the video….

  9. 最後は勘に従うとよくおっしゃるけどやはりその精度を高める鳥瞰・俯瞰、盤上で言えば大局観がずば抜けてるんだよねぇ。残念ながら求めようにもなかなか得難い資質。

  10. I'm so happy to see TEDx Talks used to invite Habu. <3 I'm his big fan, even though I can't play shogi. His lesson about applying shogi's tactic into normal life decision making is really useful and inspirational. I wish I could hear his talking again someday.

  11. 羽生先生は英語も凄いからほんとは英語でできるんだけどテデックストーキョーだから日本語でやったんだろうな。ロジカル。

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